Gold & Silver Outlook

Not to be counted as trading or investment advisory. This is a personal market view by Shubham Suresh Bapna, shared for information and education only. Please do your own research before buying or selling.
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The call

Expected gold & silver rates

Where prices are likely to be, measured from the last close. The dark band is the likely range (about a 1 in 2 chance); the light band is the wider range (about 9 in 10). The black mark is the last close.

Track record

Every horizon,

Does "X% chance of a rise" mean X%? (1-month view, back-test)

Green bar: how often the price actually rose. Gold line: the chance the site gave. Close together means the chances can be taken at face value.

Live record: every forecast published on this site since it started, checked against the actual close on the target day. Nothing is removed or edited. Back-test: the current method replayed day by day over the last 6 years using only prices known at the time; the news adjustment can't be replayed, so it is left neutral there. A price "inside the range" counts the closing price only. "Leaned" means the site gave a 55% or higher, or 45% or lower, chance of a rise. How the chances are worked out was chosen by testing several methods on 10 years of data and keeping the one that held up in both the earlier and the recent years.

Chances of a rise or fall

Try your own price and date

Chance of being above it:
Chance of being below it:

World market timings (IST)

When gold and silver trade around the world, shown in Indian time. Green bars are trading hours today; gold marks are the London benchmark price auctions. The red line is now.

Times shift by an hour when the US, UK or Europe change their clocks; this page adjusts automatically. Exchange holidays are not shown.

Price chart and 3-month range

Price 20-day avg 50-day avg 200-day avg Normal range (Bollinger) Forecast: middle, likely, wide

Momentum (RSI): below 30 = oversold, above 70 = overbought

Technical signals

Bearish
Bullish

    Fundamentals

    Why it could fall

      Why it could rise

        Top news

        Headlines from the last two days via Google News, refreshed every 2 hours. Links open the original publisher.

        Who holds and trades gold

        Forecast ranges: gold and silver

        Gold in ₹ per 10 g, silver in ₹ per kg, measured from the last close. Ranges are sized from how much each price has moved in the past year and tilted by the rise/fall chances above. "Likely" means a 1 in 2 chance of landing inside; "wide" means 9 in 10.

        How far to trust this

        Technical signals describe what the chart is doing now; they cannot know next week's news. A surprise from the US Fed, a sharp dollar or rupee move, an import duty change or a geopolitical shock can override every signal on this page.